One type of loss is one that doesn’t make an announcement. No explosion, no moment in the news. Just a slow drift, with researchers packing offices, grant applications returned unfunded, and visas denied, until one day the nation looks up and discovers that the individuals who once defined a field have quietly moved elsewhere. That seems to be the current state of theoretical computer science in the US, and it is important to take this seriously before the trend becomes irreversible.
American supremacy in this field was taken for granted for the majority of the postwar era. The nation funded the kind of long-horizon research that doesn’t yield a product in two years but transforms entire industries in twenty, as well as built the infrastructure and trained the talent. The algorithmic underpinnings of machine learning, the internet, and contemporary cryptography were not created overnight. They resulted from decades of patient investment in concepts that appeared unrealistic at the time. There is now a lot of pressure on that pipeline.
Recently, the Federation of American Scientists released a critical analysis of what it refers to as the compounding incentives that are causing talent to leave the nation. A notable number of researchers have been forced to leave due to funding reductions at federal research agencies, stricter visa requirements, and an overall climate of institutional uncertainty. According to surveys, about 75% of scientists are actively looking for opportunities overseas. Although the direction of the trend is difficult to dispute, it is still unclear whether those figures correspond to real departures at scale.
From a national security standpoint, this is especially unsettling because of the asymmetry involved. According to reports, China has been investing twice as much in quantum computing research as the US. Over the past ten years, the Chinese government has dedicated nearly $900 billion to the advancement of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology. Meanwhile, in just the first half of 2025, early-stage funding for US biotech companies fell by 65%. Not only is the US not accelerating, but it seems to be slowing down in some areas while rivals are doing the opposite.
This place’s history merits more consideration than it typically receives. One of the co-founders of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Qian Xuesen, was arrested and eventually deported by the U.S. government in the 1950s due to concerns about his political affiliations. He later developed China’s program for ballistic missiles. Erdal Arıkan, a Turkish mathematician who left American academia due to lack of support, created the polar codes that became the basis of 5G wireless technology decades later. He was located by Huawei. As you read through these cases, you get the impression that the US keeps writing the same warning story and then acting shocked when it’s all over.
In a recent report, the Council on Foreign Relations stated unequivocally that American advantages in biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing are being challenged, and strategic competition for the next generation of fundamental technologies is already in progress. This is not a forecast for 2040. It describes the current state of labs, hiring pipelines, and funding decisions that are being made this year.
Theoretical computer science functions at an abstract level that is difficult to photograph, which contributes to its significance and political undervaluation. A mathematician working through a proof is never captured on camera. Until the work is incorporated into a communications protocol, an AI architecture, or a cryptographic standard that a billion people use without understanding why it functions, it is invisible. Because of its invisibility, it is more susceptible to financial constraints than a satellite or a weaponry system.
It’s genuinely unclear what will happen next. A number of focused interventions have been suggested by the Council on Foreign Relations task force, including the establishment of an economic security coordination center, the onshoring of essential semiconductor inputs, and the acceleration of quantum development through defense procurement. These are reasonable concepts. A different question is whether there is the political will to address them as quickly as the circumstances require. The departing researchers are not waiting for a response.
